Fundamentals
How to trade the economic calendar
8 min read · by the GetBacktest team
The economic calendar lists upcoming macro releases — jobs, inflation, central-bank decisions — and the exact time they drop. For a trader, it's a map of turbulence zones: knowing when volatility will spike, and deciding whether to trade it or avoid it. This guide explains how to read it and fold it into a testable strategy.
Reading the impact levels
Every event carries an impact level (often red = high, orange = medium, yellow = low). High-impact releases — NFP, CPI, Fed/ECB decisions — can move the market by dozens of points in seconds. Low-impact ones often pass unnoticed.
A basic reflex: spot the day's high-impact news BEFORE opening a position. Many “inexplicable” losses come from a trade opened right before a major release.
Actual vs forecast: the surprise that moves price
The market already prices in the forecast. What moves price is the GAP between the published figure (actual) and that forecast — the “surprise”. A figure in line with expectations sometimes barely moves anything; a big surprise triggers a violent move.
Hence the value of having all three numbers: previous, forecast, and actual as soon as it prints. The direction also depends on context (good news in an inflation-scare regime can send the market… down).
Two ways to handle news: trade it or avoid it
Trading the news: entering on the volatility (breakout, straddle). Tempting but risky — spreads widen, stops get swept, gaps jump your orders. Reserved for a tested strategy and strict risk management.
Avoiding the news: closing or not opening positions around major releases, to dodge a random move. Often the wiser choice for a technical trader. A simple “no trade 15 min before/after a red news” filter improves many systems.
Backtest it instead of guessing
The only way to know whether YOUR strategy should trade or avoid the news is to test both. On GetBacktest, the Macro Context tab shows the releases that occurred over your replay period: you see, trade by trade, whether the news helped or sank you.
Compare your system's expectancy with and without a news filter, over a large sample. You'll know, with numbers, whether dodging major releases actually makes you money. The full macro dashboard (rates, inflation, jobs) is on the /macro page.
Don't believe it — prove it
Backtest this concept on real data, tick by tick, and get a robustness verdict. 7 days of Pro free, no card.
Start for freeFrequently asked questions
Where can I see the economic calendar?
On GetBacktest: the /macro page and the /outils/calendrier-economique tool show this week's high/medium-impact releases, for free.
Should I trade during the news?
It depends on your strategy. Many technical traders AVOID major releases (random volatility, wide spreads). Backtest both approaches before deciding.
Why doesn't the market always react to good news?
Because price already reflects the forecast. Only the surprise (actual vs forecast) moves it — and the direction depends on the macro regime (“good news is bad news” in an inflation-scare regime).
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