Fundamentals
NFP, CPI, FOMC: the 3 releases that move markets
7 min read · by the GetBacktest team
Three releases concentrate most of the macro volatility on US markets (and, by extension, global ones): NFP (jobs), CPI (inflation) and FOMC (the Fed's rate decision). Knowing them means knowing when the market is likely to go haywire — and why.
NFP — the US jobs report
Nonfarm Payrolls, released on the first Friday of the month, measures US job creation outside agriculture. It's a key gauge of economic health and a driver of Fed decisions.
A figure well above or below expectations triggers an immediate move on the dollar, indices and gold. The reaction depends on the regime: while fighting inflation, “too strong” jobs can stoke fears of higher rates… and push stocks down.
CPI — inflation
The Consumer Price Index measures inflation. Since 2022, it's THE release markets watch: it dictates the pace of central banks.
An upside surprise (hotter inflation than expected) usually lifts expected rates → pressure on stocks and bonds, support for the dollar. A downside surprise does the opposite. Core CPI (ex food and energy) is often watched more than the headline.
FOMC — the Fed decision
The Federal Open Market Committee sets US policy rates eight times a year. Beyond the decision itself (often anticipated), the market scrutinizes the statement, the projections (“dot plot”) and the press conference to guess what's next.
It's the event most likely to create a sharp, lasting move. The tone (“hawkish” = restrictive / “dovish” = accommodative) often matters more than the rate decision itself.
How not to get trapped
Around these three releases, volatility and spreads blow out, tight stops get swept, and gaps can jump your orders. Many accounts blow up on exactly these days.
The pro reflex: know their date (via the economic calendar), decide IN ADVANCE whether you trade or avoid them, and above all test it. On GetBacktest you can replay these periods and see the real impact on your strategy — the macro dashboard is on /macro.
Don't believe it — prove it
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Start for freeFrequently asked questions
Which news is most important for markets?
Since 2022, CPI (inflation) and FOMC (Fed) dominate, as they drive monetary policy. NFP (jobs) remains major. All three are high-impact on the calendar.
What time do NFP and CPI drop?
Usually 8:30 a.m. New York time. The FOMC releases its decision at 2:00 p.m. New York, followed by the press conference at 2:30. Always check the economic calendar.
Can I backtest a strategy around these releases?
Yes: on GetBacktest, the replay's Macro Context tab shows these releases over your period, and you can compare your performance on news days vs the rest.
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