Free tool
Expectancy calculator
Does your system make money over the long run?
Expectancy / trade
+0.35 R
Expectancy / trade ($)
+$35
Profit factor
1.64
Positive expectancy: this system makes money over many trades — if you stick to the plan.
Expectancy (or edge) is the average gain expected per trade, expressed in R (multiples of your risk). It combines your win rate with the relative size of your wins and losses: expectancy = (win% × average win) − (loss% × average loss). A system can win less than half its trades and still be very profitable if its wins exceed its losses — and the reverse is true. A positive expectancy is the necessary condition to win over time; you still have to verify it on a sufficient sample, which is what a real backtest does.
Go from calculation to proof
These numbers are estimates. On GetBacktest, backtest your strategy tick by tick on real data and get a true robustness verdict.
Backtest for freeFrequently asked questions
What is expectancy in trading?
It's the average result expected per trade. Positive, your system wins over the long run; negative, it loses, regardless of how it feels.
Do I need a high win rate?
No. A 40% win rate with a 2:1 reward/risk ratio gives a positive expectancy. The reward/risk ratio matters as much as the win rate.
How many trades to validate it?
An edge is judged on a large sample. On GetBacktest, the deflated Sharpe and Monte-Carlo tell you whether the observed expectancy is significant or down to chance.
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